嵌入式马尔科夫链的地质属性建模与应用     

郭飞  葛成  韩宇 《地理与地理信息科学》2012,28(1):47-50

传统的地质统计学所形成的算法理论和方法(如克里格算法)过分依赖样品的数据,变异函数参数众多,给地质模拟造成很大困难。基于马尔科夫链的地质属性建模采用转移概率描述样品区域的各种参数变量,通过转移概率矩阵直接推导地质属性分布比例、平均长度,其简化了地质空间各向异性处理过程,克服了传统地质统计学中参数众多且复杂难以计算和地质体分布过程中存在不对称性等缺陷,使得整个地质属性建模的过程更简洁、清晰,容易理解,且建模的结果可以很好地反映地质体空间分布的复杂性。该文利用马尔科夫链对南京市河西地区的新近地质层进行了地质属性建模,实例应用表明,使用该模型进行地质属性建模可为进一步的数值模拟提供支持。  相似文献   

Taguchi design-based seismic reliability analysis of geostructures     

M. A. Hariri-Ardebili  P. Boodagh 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(1):34-52

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the seismic reliability of geostructures in an optimal way. Taguchi design of experiments are adopted to find the most efficient and cost-effective combination of material properties in the uncertainty domain. Twelve uniform and mixed design models are tested. A polynomial-based response surface meta-model is built for each one and the accuracy of perdition is examined using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. A two-dimensional gravity dam is used as a vehicle for probabilistic transient analyses. The ground motion record-to-record variability is added as well using over one hundred earthquake records selected based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Dynamic sensitivity of epistemic random variables are evaluated for the first time. Finally, an efficient and practical procedure is proposed in order to determine the reliability index of the geostructures. This approach, in fact, can be generalised for any type of engineering structures dealing with multi-hazard problems.  相似文献   

Reliability analysis of the induced damage for single-hole rock blasting     

Mahdi Shadab Far  Yuan Wang  Yousif A. H. Dallo 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(1):82-98

Rock explosion has always been a complex problem because neither rock characteristics nor explosion waves could be accurately estimated. As such, this imposes a high uncertainty on deterministic methodologies available for damage prediction. In this paper, by defining two damage zones around the blast hole, including crushed and cracked zones, a first-order reliability analysis (FORM) was adopted to address this issue. For this purpose, FORM was used in a double-loop algorithm, where the inner loop was responsible for converging the FORM, and the outer loop was assigned to feed the inner loop with new cases. Using such nested-loop algorithm, the probability of exceedance was calculated for any desired damage zone radius. The maximum effect of the involved parameters on the failure probability induced around the blast hole was additionally studied using a parametric reliability analysis. The results showed that the radii for crushed and cracked zones are limited to 0.5 and 4.2?m, respectively, so that the probability of going beyond these limits is less than 1%. Moreover, the analyses of decoupled explosions showed that increasing the gap between the explosion charge and wall of the borehole could severely reduce the failure probability; however, the maximum effect of decoupling ratio occurs in the small range of radii between 0.3?mm and 2.35?m.  相似文献   

On the evolution of clustering of 24-μm-selected galaxies     

M. Magliocchetti  M. Cirasuolo  R. J. McLure  J. S. Dunlop  O. Almaini  S. Foucaud  G. De Zotti  C. Simpson  K. Sekiguchi 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,383(3):1131-1142

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Galaxy colour, morphology and environment in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey     

N. M. Ball  J. Loveday  R. J. Brunner 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,383(3):907-922

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Environment and mass dependencies of galactic λ spin parameter: cosmological simulations and observed galaxies compared     

B. Cervantes-Sodi  X. Hernandez  Changbom Park  Juhan Kim 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,388(2):863-872

We use a sample of galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) to search for correlations between the λ spin parameter and the environment and mass of galaxies. In order to calculate the total value of λ for each observed galaxy, we employed a simple model of the dynamical structure of the galaxies, which allows a rough estimate of the value of λ using only readily obtainable observables from the luminous galaxies. Use of a large volume-limited sample (upwards of 11 000) allows reliable inferences of mean values and dispersions of λ distributions. We find, in agreement with some N -body cosmological simulations, no significant dependence of λ on the environmental density of the galaxies. For the case of mass, our results show a marked correlation with λ, in the sense that low-mass galaxies present both higher mean values of λ and associated dispersions, than high-mass galaxies. These results provide interesting constrain on the mechanisms of galaxy formation and acquisition of angular momentum, a valuable test for cosmological models.  相似文献   

Erratum: Bulk flow and shear moments of the SFI++ survey     

《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,388(4):1904-1904

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基于可靠度理论的尾矿坝失稳概率及敏感性分析          下载免费PDF全文

李涛  刘国栋  王聪 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2019,30(3):81-86

为了能够真实反映砭家沟尾矿库的稳定特性,运用Monte Carlo试验原理,考虑库区砂层的空间变异特性,利用Slope/W软件对尾矿库进行了概率分析与敏感性分析。分析表明,抽样方式的不同,使尾矿坝体失稳概率和可靠性指标发生了大幅波动,但是并没有使安全系数产生明显变化,也验证了仅将安全系数作为衡量尾矿坝体稳定性的唯一标准是不合适的;敏感性分析也表明了砂层主要参数对安全系数影响的敏感程度,同时也表明黏聚力是影响库区稳定的主要砂层因素。通过研究,为尾矿库今后的运行与管理提供了理论依据,具有一定的指导意义。  相似文献   

基于SRTM DEM的地形起伏度对天水市黄土滑坡的影响分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

宿星  魏万鸿  郭万钦  王思源  王国亚  吴玮江  叶伟林 《冰川冻土》2017,39(3):616-622

以天水市辖区30 m分辨率的SRTM DEM数据为基础,首先利用GIS空间分析模块中邻域统计分析法,依次选取2×2、3×3、4×4、…、28×28、29×29、30×30共29个矩形邻域分析窗口,运用均值变点分析法进行最佳计算单元的计算分析。结果表明：12×12的网格大小（12.96×10⁴ m²）为曲线突变的拐点,作为曲线由陡变缓的阈值,确定12×12的网格大小（12.96×10⁴ m²）为研究区地形起伏度计算的最佳单元,生成研究区地形起伏度分级图。进而采用确定性系数法（CF）、证据权法、信息量法和条件概率法对研究区发育的黄土滑坡灾害与地形起伏度之间的相关关系进行了定量分析。研究结果表明,区内地形起伏度影响因子层中地形起伏度60~120 m的分级因子层为黄土滑坡灾害的易发因子层,而其中60~90 m区间的值最大,为黄土滑坡灾害的优势因子区间,对滑坡的响应最敏感。  相似文献   

基于Monte Carlo模拟的三维剖面地质界线不确定性分析     

侯卫生  杨翘楚  杨亮  崔婵婕 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2017,47(3)

三维剖面地质界线是构建三维地质结构模型的重要基础数据,其不确定性会影响三维模型的几何形态和属性分布。以单一分布为假设前提的统计学不确定性分析方法掩盖了其他概率分布特征对模型的影响。突破单一误差分布条件的假设前提,本文使用Monte Carlo方法模拟了不同概率分布情况下地质剖面数据中地质界线的抽样采集,以及地质界线空间分布的不确定性;依托地质界线空间位置与地质属性的耦合关系,提出了用地质属性概率分布实现地质界线空间不确定性的定量可视化,并结合实际地质剖面探讨了多种概率分布条件下地质界线的空间不确定性。实例研究表明,基于Monte Carlo模拟的不确定性分析方法可以突破单一误差分布假设条件,结合地质属性概率可充分揭示出建模数据的内在不确定性与模型外在要素形态之间的耦合关系。  相似文献